A spatial-based tool for the analysis of payments for forest ecosystem services related to hydrogeological protection

This paper presents a decision support based on spatial analysis for the evaluation of payments for forest ecosystem services (PES). A focus on the payment range for protective services for shallow landslide is described. The maximum willingness to pay by real estate owners and the minimum willingness to accept by forest owners are computed. The model quantifies the economic risk of real estate depending on the loss probability due to landslide and the presence and protection efficiency of forest. The potential compensation to forest managers considers the difference of the forest expected value from current practices (business as usual – BAU – scenario) to the intervention optimized for PES. A geostatistical approach is applied to quantify the uncertainty of the output. The results indicate relevant differences from BAU to PES in term of an increased protection efficiency and reduced uncertainty. The suitability of protective forest for PES activation is approximately 46 % of the total surface in the study area (Municipality Union of Sieve and Arno Valleys, Tuscany – central Italy). The output also highlights the strong influence of the tree species composition on the value of the PES scenario and indicates that Turkey oak and mixed broadleaved forests are more likely to fall under a PES scheme. Spatial analysis is useful for determining the influence of site-specific characteristics.