An age-dependent mathematical model of neurofilament trafficking in healthy conditions

Neurofilaments (Nfs) are the major structural component of neurons. Their role as a potential biomarker of several neurodegenerative diseases has been investigated in past years with promising results. However, even under physiological conditions, little is known about the leaking of Nfs from the neuronal system and their detection in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and blood. This study aimed at developing a mathematical model of Nf transport in healthy subjects in the 20–90 age range. The model was implemented as a set of ordinary differential equations describing the trafficking of Nfs from the nervous system to the periphery. Model parameters were calibrated on typical Nf levels obtained from the literature. An age-dependent function modeled on CSF data was also included and validated on data measured in serum. We computed a global sensitivity analysis of model rates and volumes to identify the most sensitive parameters affecting the model’s steady state. Age, Nf synthesis, and degradation rates proved to be relevant for all model variables. Nf levels in the CSF and in blood were observed to be sensitive to the Nf leakage rates from neurons and to the blood clearance rate, and CSF levels were also sensitive to rates representing CSF turnover. An additional parameter perturbation analysis was also performed to investigate possible transient effects on the model variables not captured by the sensitivity analysis. The model provides useful insights into Nf transport and constitutes the basis for implementing quantitative system pharmacology extensions to investigate Nf trafficking in neurodegenerative diseases.