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EnglishBayesian orthodoxy posits a tight relationship between conditional probability and updating. Namely, the probability of an event A after learning B should equal the conditional probability of A given B prior to learning B. We examine whether ordinary judgment conforms to the orthodox view. In three experiments we found substantial differences between the conditional probability of an event A supposing an event B compared to the probability of A after having learned B. Specifically, supposing B appears to have less impact on the credibility of A than learning that B is true.
http://hdl.handle.net/11572/91484| Titolo: | Updating: learning versus supposing |
| Autori Unitn: | Tentori, Katya |
| Anno di pubblicazione: | 2012 |
| Titolo del periodico: | COGNITION |
| Abstract: | Bayesian orthodoxy posits a tight relationship between conditional probability and updating. Namely, the probability of an event A after learning B should equal the conditional probability of A given B prior to learning B. We examine whether ordinary judgment conforms to the orthodox view. In three experiments we found substantial differences between the conditional probability of an event A supposing an event B compared to the probability of A after having learned B. Specifically, supposing B appears to have less impact on the credibility of A than learning that B is true. |
| Handle: | http://hdl.handle.net/11572/91484 |
| Appare nelle tipologie: | 03.1 Articolo su rivista (Journal article) |
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| File | Descrizione | Dimensione | Formato | Tipologia | Licenza | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhao, Crupi, Tentori, Fitelson & Osherson (2012).pdf | 376.38 kB | Adobe PDF | Versione editoriale | Tutti i diritti riservati (All rights reserved) | Utenti riconosciuti |
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