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EnglishAmong numerical formats available to express probability, ratios are extensively used in risk communication, perhaps because of the health professional's intuitive sense of their clarity and simplicity. Moreover, health professionals, in the attempt to make the data more meaningful, tend to prefer proportions with a numerator of 1 and shifting denominators (e.g., 1 in 200) rather than equivalent rates of disease per unit of population exposed to the threat (e.g., 5 in 1000). However, in a series of 7 experiments, it is shown that individual subjective assessments of the same probability presented through proportions rather than rates vary significantly. A 1-in-X format (e.g., 1 in 200) is subjectively perceived as bigger and more alarming than an N-in-X*N format (e.g., 5 in 1000). The 1-in-X effect generalizes to different populations, probabilities, and medical conditions. Further-more, the effect is not attenuated by a communicative intervention (verbal analogy), but it disappears with an icon array visual aid.
| Titolo: | The 1-in-X effect on the subjective assessment of medical probabilities |
| Autori: | Pighin, Stefania; Savadori, Lucia; Barilli, Elisa; L. Cremonesi, M. Ferrari; J. F., Bonnefon |
| Autori Unitn: | |
| Titolo del periodico: | MEDICAL DECISION MAKING |
| Anno di pubblicazione: | 2011 |
| Numero e parte del fascicolo: | 5 |
| Codice identificativo Scopus: | 2-s2.0-80052826932 |
| Codice identificativo Pubmed: | 21512187 |
| Codice identificativo ISI: | WOS:000294897200006 |
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI): | 10.1177/0272989x11403490 |
| Handle: | http://hdl.handle.net/11572/89289 |
| Citazione: | The 1-in-X effect on the subjective assessment of medical probabilities / Pighin, Stefania; Savadori, Lucia; Barilli, Elisa; L. Cremonesi, M. Ferrari; J. F., Bonnefon. - In: MEDICAL DECISION MAKING. - ISSN 0272-989X. - STAMPA. - 31:5(2011), pp. 721-729. |
| Appare nelle tipologie: | 03.1 Articolo su rivista (Journal article) |
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