Optimizing Algeria’s solar potential: end-to-end PV siting, performance mapping, and techno-economic insights

Large-scale photovoltaic (PV) deployment in Algeria requires robust and transparent siting and planning methods that jointly account for solar resource quality, infrastructure accessibility, environmental safeguards, and power-system constraints. This study develops a nation-scale, high-resolution (100 m) PV site-selection and planning framework to support evidence-based investment and strategic grid expansion under Algeria’s pronounced north–south mismatch between optimal solar resources in the Sahara and major demand centers in the North. A comprehensive geospatial database of PV performance and siting drivers was harmonized from authoritative sources and integrated into a transparent GIS-MCDA workflow using explicit exclusion masks and fuzzy AHP (FAHP) expert weighting. Suitability maps were produced for (i) utility-scale PV hubs and (ii) low-/distributed PV, while an additional offline scenario, removing proximity-to-grid and road constraints, was introduced to identify intrinsically favorable but currently remote opportunities. PV performance was quantified through a production atlas comparing horizontal and optimally tilted systems using temperature-corrected plane-of-array irradiance, yielding annual alternating-current (AC) energy potentials of 242–309 GWh·km−2·yr−1. Conceptual north–south interconnection corridors were evaluated to improve access to high-quality clusters under realistic land and environmental constraints. A techno-economic assessment mapped site-specific levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of 3.63–4.63 cEUR·kWh−1, including connection and access cost adders, while a screening-level environmental and CO2 analysis estimated avoided emissions of 67.91–86.65 kt CO2·km−2·yr−1 under a gas-displacement baseline. Robustness was further examined through Monte Carlo uncertainty and targeted sensitivity analyses. Under the grid-connected scenario, the minimum median LCOE reached 3.91 cEUR·kWh−1, while a representative low-LCOE tilted-PV site showed a wider LCOE range of 1.4–7.27 cEUR·kWh−1 under varying economic assumptions. Compared with prior Algerian studies, the framework expands deployment scales, strengthens the constraint stack, and adds actionable grid-scenario, uncertainty, and portfolio-sizing analyses for strategic PV planning.