Urban Basis of Political Protest in Syria: Explaining: Divergent Patterns of Mobilisation and Demobilisation

This dissertation investigates the spatial variation in mobilisation capacity across neighbourhoods in three Syrian cities: Daraa, Hama, and Deir-ez-Zor, during the first two years of the Syrian Revolution (2011–2013). Unlike other Arab Spring popular uprisings that occupied central squares, as in Egypt and Tunisia, demonstrators in Syria were unable to sustain control of these spaces under severe repression. Consequently, mobilisation shifted into inner streets and neighbourhood squares, producing sharp intra-city divergence, with some neighbourhoods becoming central hubs of contention, while adjacent areas, exposed to comparable repressive structures, never mobilised or readily demobilised. This puzzle situates micro-socio-spatial characteristics at the centre of the inquiry. The study asks how place-specific configurations shaped each neighbourhood’s capacity to mobilise, sustain mobilisation, and resist state repression. It develops the Event-Site Nexus as a theoretical framework for explaining the interaction between geography and political action. Within this framework, mobilisation is co-produced by the organisational capacity of challengers and the repressive power of the state, both of which are facilitated or constrained by the structural characteristics of the site. The study utilises fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), complemented by in-depth case studies, to identify causal pathways that led to the occurrence or non-occurrence of mobilisation across phases. The methodology proceeds in three steps: establishing case knowledge by tracing the historical development of the three cities and protest phases; quantifying conditions and outcomes into measurable variables; and conducting detailed case studies to examine how specific combinations of conditions interacted in practice. Thirteen causal pathways to mobilisation and three pathways to non-mobilisation emerged. The findings show that urban density, proximity to protest squares and mosque networks, and distance from government and security buildings were essential during the early stages. As contention shifted into neighbourhoods, particularly amid the militarisation of the conflict, social solidarity and fortified urban environments became increasingly decisive.