A Climatological Baseline for Understanding Patterns of Seasonal Lake Dynamics across Sub-Sahelian Africa

Lakes in sub-Sahelian Africa are facing growing ecological threats from climate change and human, yet most research has focused on a handful of well-known large lakes. This study analyses 137 lakes, many previously understudied, and identifies consistent seasonal co-variability patterns across meteorological variables, satellite-derived lake physical and biogeochemical variables, and morphological and anthropogenic characteristics. We identify four distinct clusters of lakes, shaped by the atmospheric variability and its synchrony with water temperature seasonality. Within each cluster, we observe three seasonal patterns of chlorophyll-a concentration tied to wet and dry seasons. These patterns align with regional climatic threats in Africa, such as shifts in rainfall seasonality, altered frequency of tropical cyclones and wildfires, thus positioning our study as a framework to assess lake vulnerability across the sub-Sahelian region.