Digital Twin-Driven Design of an Ice Prediction Model

This paper describes the development of an ice creation model to be used within the framework of a model-based systems engineering approach to predict the amount of ice growing on aircraft wings during flight. This model supports the preliminary design of the ice protection system, as well as the implementation of a control system, in real-time. When the aircraft meets a high concentration of super-cooled water in the atmosphere and a low temperature, the risk of ice formation on its external surfaces is significant. This causes a decrease in aerodynamic performance, with potential loss of control of the aircraft. To mitigate this effect, ice prevention and protection systems are crucial. The characteristics of the icing phenomena are first defined, then their effects on aircraft behavior during operation are evaluated. This allows us to develop a highly parametric predictive model of the actual icing conditions experienced by the aircraft during a given flight mission. To precisely predict the ice accretion and to design an ice protection system, estimating heat fluxes involving the aircraft's wing surfaces and the external environment is required. To allow for this, this study also develops a thermal model that is specifically applied to the above-mentioned analysis. This model includes many factors characterizing the atmospheric conditions responsible for ice creation upon the aerodynamic surfaces, and it enables an accurate estimation and quantification of all the parameters necessary to design an appropriate ice protection system.