Migration, marriage, and counterfactual spouses

A standard view in the migration literature is that of a fixed family sending off a migrant who may leave their spouse and children behind. We show empirically that changing marital status after migration is widespread for migrants moving from developing countries to the U.S., so that the family unit itself changes with migration. Only one-third of ever-married adult migrants are currently married to a spouse they wed before migration. The variance of spousal characteristics is higher for migrants than non-migrants. Using a survey experiment with young unmarried Mexican men, we find that they have more uncertainty about the characteristics of their future spouses should they migrate than if they were to stay at home, and that priming them to think about marriage reduces their expressed likelihood of migrating. We draw out implications of these counterfactual spouses for empirical research on migration decisions and impacts, and for migration policy.