WATER SCARCITY, CONFLICT AND NEGOTIATION: FOUR ESSAYS

Neo-Malthusian theories in the 1990s explored the link between renewable resource scarcity and violence but found little support at the international level. While some studies identified non-violent tensions over shared rivers, the overall impact of water scarcity on conflict remained inconsistent. Divergent findings often resulted from variations in data, methodologies, and analytical approaches, leaving the relationship between water scarcity and conflict unresolved. Climate change further complicates this nexus by intensifying water-related challenges. Uneven distribution of water resources, rising temperatures, and unpredictable climate anomalies exacerbate regional vulnerabilities. Some areas face droughts and scarcity, while others endure flooding and overabundance. These environmental shifts disrupt ecosystems, alter biodiversity, and strain agriculture, making tailored, region-specific strategies essential for mitigating their impacts. Understanding these dynamics is critical to ensuring water serves as a catalyst for cooperation rather than conflict. However, academic research has shown that cooperation is the preferred option over interstate conflict when two states deal with the scarcity of transboundary waters. From this broad puzzle in our understanding of interstate water interactions, my dissertation tries to answer three main research questions: How are interstate water interactions characterized in conditions of increased water scarcity? Can a more complex understanding of scarcity better explain the presence of conflictual and cooperative responses to water scarcity? Finally, does formal water cooperation improve water use among and within riparians? Four essays answer these research questions. First, I critically review the literature to build formal models to understand theoretically how and why we can observe conflictual and cooperative interactions among riparians when the resource becomes scarce. The second and fourth essays address the first two research questions and try to answer them by combining a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods with a regional focus on Southern African water politics. The third essay, instead, responds to the third research question investigating the relations between water treaty provisions and their impact on water use efficiency within signatories.