A High-Resolution Climatological Study of Explosive Cyclones in the Mediterranean Region: Frequency, Intensity and Synoptic Drivers

In the complex context of climate change and in a heavily populated area like the Mediterranean region, understanding and studying explosive cyclones (ECs) is crucial because of their potential to cause extreme weather events, including strong winds, heavy rainfall, and significant disruptions to human activities and infrastructure, as happened in 2018 with the Vaia storm. The genesis and persistence of ECs, characterized by a rapid drop in central mean sea level pressure exceeding 12 hPa in 12 hours, are influenced by various physical processes and while water vapour convergence in the mid-low troposphere is crucial, mid-upper tropospheric cyclonic vorticity advection and upper tropospheric divergence also play significant roles. In this study, we used ERA5 hourly data of mean sea level pressure from 1979 to 2020 to analyse EC occurrences in the Mediterranean. The identification of EC events followed the 12-hr deepening-rate criterion introduced by Zhang et al. (2017), as shorter deepening rates definitions proved unreliable. A total of 80 ECs were identified and classified based on their spatial occurrence and magnitude, 34 of which were concentrated in the northwest of the basin, likely due to orographic deformation caused by the Alps on baroclinic waves originating from the Atlantic. The study also identified recurring synoptic patterns associated with the persistence of ECs over the sea, including the presence of potential vorticity (PV) streamers and mid-tropospheric dry-air intrusions. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis highlighted the Scandinavian pattern as the primary driver, with blocking conditions over western Russia and Scandinavia, and composite analyses revealed the intrusion of PV to various atmospheric levels, extending up to 500 hPa. In summary, this study offers valuable insights into the complex mechanisms governing EC formation in the Mediterranean Basin, shedding light on the synoptic patterns, atmospheric dynamics, and potential impacts on regional weather systems.