Macroeconomic Impacts of Traditional Crop Varieties Breeding Programs: The Case of Ethiopian Wheat Landraces

National strategies aimed at enhancing agricultural productivity in sub-Saharan Africa have traditionally focused on encouraging the adoption of modern, improved crop varieties. However, this approach has led to the unintended consequences of genetic erosion, particularly the decline of locally conserved traditional varieties and reduced option value for bioprospecting. In this paper, we modify a general equilibrium framework of analysis introducing agrobiodiversity elements under the structure of land supply and crop production to understand to what extent traditional vs improved varieties conservation strategies can affect welfare in a given country. Specifically, we focus our analysis on the Ethiopian durum wheat sector, where decentralized breeding programs enhance the farm’s marginal revenue by conserving agrobiodiversity. A counterfactual scenario is constructed, accounting for climate change and technological projections up to 2050. The results indicate that targeting breeding programs in specific agroecological niches can achieve conservation and food production goals concurrently. The findings underscore the need for policy interventions aiming at promoting nuanced and context-specific strategy that considers conservation and production objectives within the broader agricultural landscape.