Spatial clusters for demand and supply of early childhood education and care services in Italy

In recent years, concern has increased about affordable and high-quality early childhood education and care (ECEC) services. Such services can help balance work and family life, increase workforce participation, promote gender equality, and increase fertility rates. ECEC services are then essential, especially for countries facing ultralow fertility rates like Italy. To face these challenges, the Italian government has included an unprecedented investment in the recovery and resilience plan financed with Next Generations EU funds to increase the supply of ECEC services and make them more equitably distributed across the country. However, socio-economic policies need a comprehensive understanding of demand dynamics and the intricate interplay between supply and demand of such services. Therefore, in this article, we propose a novel analysis of the complex combination of supply and demand of Italian ECEC services. We explore patterns of this combination in terms of groups of spatial areas sharing similar structures of service coverage and public expenditure rates in ECEC, as well as other socio-demographic and economic factors such as female employment, education, and grandparent rates. Our empirical findings confirm how Italy is characterized by several distinct territorial models and how some are shared across multiple regions. Current empirical findings suggest a lack of uniform governance across the Italian territory. Policymakers can use these results to plan, discuss, and implement area-specific welfare strategies regarding ECEC services.