Clinical utility of diffusion MRI‐derived measures of cortical microstructure in a real‐world memory clinic setting

Objective: To investigate cortical microstructural measures from diffusion MRI as "neurodegeneration" markers that could improve prognostic accuracy in mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Methods: The prognostic power of Amyloid/Tau/Neurodegeneration (ATN) biomarkers to predict progression from MCI to AD or non-AD dementia was investigated. Ninety patients underwent clinical evaluation (follow-up interval 32 ± 18 months), lumbar puncture, and MRI. Participants were grouped by clinical stage and cerebrospinal fluid Amyloid and Tau status. T1-structural and diffusion MRI scans were analyzed to calculate diffusion metrics related to cortical columnar structure (AngleR, ParlPD, PerpPD+), cortical mean diffusivity, and fractional anisotropy. Statistical tests were corrected for multiple comparisons. Prognostic power was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and related indices. Results: A progressive increase of whole-brain cortical diffusion values was observed along the AD continuum, with all A+ groups showing significantly higher AngleR than A-T-. Investigating clinical progression to dementia, the AT biomarkers together showed good positive predictive value (with 90.91% of MCI A+T+ converting to dementia) but poor negative predictive value (with 40% of MCI A-T- progressing to a mix of AD and non-AD dementias). Adding whole-brain AngleR as an N marker, produced good differentiation between stable and converting MCI A-T- patients (0.8 area under ROC curve) and substantially improved negative predictive value (+21.25%). Interpretation: Results support the clinical utility of cortical microstructure to aid prognosis, especially in A-T- patients. Further work will investigate other complexities of the real-world clinical setting, including A-T+ groups. Diffusion MRI measures of neurodegeneration may complement fluid AT markers to support clinical decision-making.