Assessing the potential effects of the Brenner Basis Tunnel Opening: socioeconomics changes and possible behavioural interventions

The aim of this thesis is to analyse the potential effects of the planned Brenner Pass opening in 2028. The thesis is divided into 3 studies: in the first, we will provide a methodological description of possible approaches to be used in this type of analysis. In the second, we will propose an experiment to understand if it is possible to exploit the default effect to induce a modal shift towards the most sustainable means of transportation: the train. In the third study, we will conduct a simulation by applying the model constructed by Monte et al in 2018. The simulation results demonstrate that the opening of the Brenner Base Tunnel will lead to an increase in welfa re in the Trentino Alto Adige region (+0.2%), along with other socio economic changes such as increased commuting and housing costs. Theresults of the second study highlight the potential of a simple policy based on the default effect, pushing over half ( 54%) of the participants to repeatedly choose the most sustainable option.