Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1 . Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellitederived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% diference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total defcit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests ofer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential / Mo, Lidong; Zohner, Constantin M.; Reich, Peter B.; Liang, Jingjing; de Miguel, Sergio; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; Renner, Susanne S.; van den Hoogen, Johan; Araza, Arnan; Herold, Martin; Mirzagholi, Leila; Ma, Haozhi; Averill, Colin; Phillips, Oliver L.; Gamarra, Javier G. P.; Hordijk, Iris; Routh, Devin; Abegg, Meinrad; Adou Yao, Yves C.; Alberti, Giorgio; Almeyda Zambrano, Angelica M.; Alvarado, Braulio Vilchez; Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Alves, Luciana F.; Amaral, Iêda; Ammer, Christian; Antón-Fernández, Clara; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Arroyo, Luzmila; Avitabile, Valerio; Aymard, Gerardo A.; Baker, Timothy R.; Bałazy, Radomir; Banki, Olaf; Barroso, Jorcely G.; Bastian, Meredith L.; Bastin, Jean-Francois; Birigazzi, Luca; Birnbaum, Philippe; Bitariho, Robert; Boeckx, Pascal; Bongers, Frans; Bouriaud, Olivier; Brancalion, Pedro H. S.; Brandl, Susanne; Brearley, Francis Q.; Brienen, Roel; Broadbent, Eben N.; Bruelheide, Helge; Bussotti, Filippo; Cazzolla Gatti, Roberto; César, Ricardo G.; Cesljar, Goran; Chazdon, Robin L.; Chen, Han Y. H.; Chisholm, Chelsea; Cho, Hyunkook; Cienciala, Emil; Clark, Connie; Clark, David; Colletta, Gabriel D.; Coomes, David A.; Cornejo Valverde, Fernando; Corral-Rivas, José J.; Crim, Philip M.; Cumming, Jonathan R.; Dayanandan, Selvadurai; de Gasper, André L.; Decuyper, Mathieu; Derroire, Géraldine; Devries, Ben; Djordjevic, Ilija; Dolezal, Jiri; Dourdain, Aurélie; Engone Obiang, Nestor Laurier; Enquist, Brian J.; Eyre, Teresa J.; Fandohan, Adandé Belarmain; Fayle, Tom M.; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Ferreira, Leandro V.; Finér, Leena; Fischer, Markus; Fletcher, Christine; Frizzera, Lorenzo; Gianelle, Damiano; Glick, Henry B.; Harris, David J.; Hector, Andrew; Hemp, Andreas; Hengeveld, Geerten; Hérault, Bruno; Herbohn, John L.; Hillers, Annika; Honorio Coronado, Eurídice N.; Hui, Cang; Ibanez, Thomas; Imai, Nobuo; Jagodziński, Andrzej M.; Jaroszewicz, Bogdan; Johannsen, Vivian Kvist; Joly, Carlos A.; Jucker, Tommaso; Jung, Ilbin; Karminov, Viktor; Kartawinata, Kuswata; Kearsley, Elizabeth; Kenfack, David; Kennard, Deborah K.; Kepfer-Rojas, Sebastian; Keppel, Gunnar; Khan, Mohammed Latif; Killeen, Timothy J.; Kim, Hyun Seok; Kitayama, Kanehiro; Köhl, Michael; Korjus, Henn; Kraxner, Florian; Kucher, Dmitry; Laarmann, Diana; Lang, Mait; Lu, Huicui; Lukina, Natalia V.; Maitner, Brian S.; Malhi, Yadvinder; Marcon, Eric; Marimon, Beatriz Schwantes; Marimon-Junior, Ben Hur; Marshall, Andrew R.; Martin, Emanuel H.; Meave, Jorge A.; Melo-Cruz, Omar; Mendoza, Casimiro; Mendoza-Polo, Irina; Miscicki, Stanislaw; Merow, Cory; Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel; Moreno, Vanessa S.; Mukul, Sharif A.; Mundhenk, Philip; Nava-Miranda, María Guadalupe; Neill, David; Neldner, Victor J.; Nevenic, Radovan V.; Ngugi, Michael R.; Niklaus, Pascal A.; Oleksyn, Jacek; Ontikov, Petr; Ortiz-Malavasi, Edgar; Pan, Yude; Paquette, Alain; Parada-Gutierrez, Alexander; Parfenova, Elena I.; Park, Minjee; Parren, Marc; Parthasarathy, Narayanaswamy; Peri, Pablo L.; Pfautsch, Sebastian; Picard, Nicolas; Piedade, Maria Teresa F.; Piotto, Daniel; Pitman, Nigel C. A.; Poulsen, Axel Dalberg; Poulsen, John R.; Pretzsch, Hans; Ramirez Arevalo, Freddy; Restrepo-Correa, Zorayda; Rodeghiero, Mirco; Rolim, Samir G.; Roopsind, Anand; Rovero, Francesco; Rutishauser, Ervan; Saikia, Purabi; Salas-Eljatib, Christian; Saner, Philippe; Schall, Peter; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Schepaschenko, Dmitry; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael; Schmid, Bernhard; Schöngart, Jochen; Searle, Eric B.; Seben, Vladimír; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Sheil, Douglas; Shvidenko, Anatoly Z.; Silva-Espejo, Javier E.; Silveira, Marcos; Singh, James; Sist, Plinio; Slik, Ferry; Sonké, Bonaventure; Souza, Alexandre F.; Stereńczak, Krzysztof J.; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Svoboda, Miroslav; Swanepoel, Ben; Targhetta, Natalia; Tchebakova, Nadja; ter Steege, Hans; Thomas, Raquel; Tikhonova, Elena; Umunay, Peter M.; Usoltsev, Vladimir A.; Valencia, Renato; Valladares, Fernando; van der Plas, Fons; Van Do, Tran; van Nuland, Michael E.; Vasquez, Rodolfo M.; Verbeeck, Hans; Viana, Helder; Vibrans, Alexander C.; Vieira, Simone; von Gadow, Klaus; Wang, Hua-Feng; Watson, James V.; Werner, Gijsbert D. A.; Wiser, Susan K.; Wittmann, Florian; Woell, Hannsjoerg; Wortel, Verginia; Zagt, Roderik; Zawiła-Niedźwiecki, Tomasz; Zhang, Chunyu; Zhao, Xiuhai; Zhou, Mo; Zhu, Zhi-Xin; Zo-Bi, Irie C.; Gann, George D.; Crowther, Thomas W.. - In: NATURE. - ISSN 0028-0836. - 2023:(2023), pp. 1-16. [10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z]

Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Rodeghiero, Mirco;
2023-01-01

Abstract

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1 . Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellitederived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% diference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total defcit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests ofer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.
2023
Mo, Lidong; Zohner, Constantin M.; Reich, Peter B.; Liang, Jingjing; de Miguel, Sergio; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; Renner, Susanne S.; van den Hoogen, Johan; Araza, Arnan; Herold, Martin; Mirzagholi, Leila; Ma, Haozhi; Averill, Colin; Phillips, Oliver L.; Gamarra, Javier G. P.; Hordijk, Iris; Routh, Devin; Abegg, Meinrad; Adou Yao, Yves C.; Alberti, Giorgio; Almeyda Zambrano, Angelica M.; Alvarado, Braulio Vilchez; Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Alves, Luciana F.; Amaral, Iêda; Ammer, Christian; Antón-Fernández, Clara; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Arroyo, Luzmila; Avitabile, Valerio; Aymard, Gerardo A.; Baker, Timothy R.; Bałazy, Radomir; Banki, Olaf; Barroso, Jorcely G.; Bastian, Meredith L.; Bastin, Jean-Francois; Birigazzi, Luca; Birnbaum, Philippe; Bitariho, Robert; Boeckx, Pascal; Bongers, Frans; Bouriaud, Olivier; Brancalion, Pedro H. S.; Brandl, Susanne; Brearley, Francis Q.; Brienen, Roel; Broadbent, Eben N.; Bruelheide, Helge; Bussotti, Filippo; Cazzolla Gatti, Roberto; César, Ricardo G.; Cesljar, Goran; Chazdon, Robin L.; Chen, Han Y. H.; Chisholm, Chelsea; Cho, Hyunkook; Cienciala, Emil; Clark, Connie; Clark, David; Colletta, Gabriel D.; Coomes, David A.; Cornejo Valverde, Fernando; Corral-Rivas, José J.; Crim, Philip M.; Cumming, Jonathan R.; Dayanandan, Selvadurai; de Gasper, André L.; Decuyper, Mathieu; Derroire, Géraldine; Devries, Ben; Djordjevic, Ilija; Dolezal, Jiri; Dourdain, Aurélie; Engone Obiang, Nestor Laurier; Enquist, Brian J.; Eyre, Teresa J.; Fandohan, Adandé Belarmain; Fayle, Tom M.; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Ferreira, Leandro V.; Finér, Leena; Fischer, Markus; Fletcher, Christine; Frizzera, Lorenzo; Gianelle, Damiano; Glick, Henry B.; Harris, David J.; Hector, Andrew; Hemp, Andreas; Hengeveld, Geerten; Hérault, Bruno; Herbohn, John L.; Hillers, Annika; Honorio Coronado, Eurídice N.; Hui, Cang; Ibanez, Thomas; Imai, Nobuo; Jagodziński, Andrzej M.; Jaroszewicz, Bogdan; Johannsen, Vivian Kvist; Joly, Carlos A.; Jucker, Tommaso; Jung, Ilbin; Karminov, Viktor; Kartawinata, Kuswata; Kearsley, Elizabeth; Kenfack, David; Kennard, Deborah K.; Kepfer-Rojas, Sebastian; Keppel, Gunnar; Khan, Mohammed Latif; Killeen, Timothy J.; Kim, Hyun Seok; Kitayama, Kanehiro; Köhl, Michael; Korjus, Henn; Kraxner, Florian; Kucher, Dmitry; Laarmann, Diana; Lang, Mait; Lu, Huicui; Lukina, Natalia V.; Maitner, Brian S.; Malhi, Yadvinder; Marcon, Eric; Marimon, Beatriz Schwantes; Marimon-Junior, Ben Hur; Marshall, Andrew R.; Martin, Emanuel H.; Meave, Jorge A.; Melo-Cruz, Omar; Mendoza, Casimiro; Mendoza-Polo, Irina; Miscicki, Stanislaw; Merow, Cory; Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel; Moreno, Vanessa S.; Mukul, Sharif A.; Mundhenk, Philip; Nava-Miranda, María Guadalupe; Neill, David; Neldner, Victor J.; Nevenic, Radovan V.; Ngugi, Michael R.; Niklaus, Pascal A.; Oleksyn, Jacek; Ontikov, Petr; Ortiz-Malavasi, Edgar; Pan, Yude; Paquette, Alain; Parada-Gutierrez, Alexander; Parfenova, Elena I.; Park, Minjee; Parren, Marc; Parthasarathy, Narayanaswamy; Peri, Pablo L.; Pfautsch, Sebastian; Picard, Nicolas; Piedade, Maria Teresa F.; Piotto, Daniel; Pitman, Nigel C. A.; Poulsen, Axel Dalberg; Poulsen, John R.; Pretzsch, Hans; Ramirez Arevalo, Freddy; Restrepo-Correa, Zorayda; Rodeghiero, Mirco; Rolim, Samir G.; Roopsind, Anand; Rovero, Francesco; Rutishauser, Ervan; Saikia, Purabi; Salas-Eljatib, Christian; Saner, Philippe; Schall, Peter; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Schepaschenko, Dmitry; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael; Schmid, Bernhard; Schöngart, Jochen; Searle, Eric B.; Seben, Vladimír; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Sheil, Douglas; Shvidenko, Anatoly Z.; Silva-Espejo, Javier E.; Silveira, Marcos; Singh, James; Sist, Plinio; Slik, Ferry; Sonké, Bonaventure; Souza, Alexandre F.; Stereńczak, Krzysztof J.; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Svoboda, Miroslav; Swanepoel, Ben; Targhetta, Natalia; Tchebakova, Nadja; ter Steege, Hans; Thomas, Raquel; Tikhonova, Elena; Umunay, Peter M.; Usoltsev, Vladimir A.; Valencia, Renato; Valladares, Fernando; van der Plas, Fons; Van Do, Tran; van Nuland, Michael E.; Vasquez, Rodolfo M.; Verbeeck, Hans; Viana, Helder; Vibrans, Alexander C.; Vieira, Simone; von Gadow, Klaus; Wang, Hua-Feng; Watson, James V.; Werner, Gijsbert D. A.; Wiser, Susan K.; Wittmann, Florian; Woell, Hannsjoerg; Wortel, Verginia; Zagt, Roderik; Zawiła-Niedźwiecki, Tomasz; Zhang, Chunyu; Zhao, Xiuhai; Zhou, Mo; Zhu, Zhi-Xin; Zo-Bi, Irie C.; Gann, George D.; Crowther, Thomas W.
Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential / Mo, Lidong; Zohner, Constantin M.; Reich, Peter B.; Liang, Jingjing; de Miguel, Sergio; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; Renner, Susanne S.; van den Hoogen, Johan; Araza, Arnan; Herold, Martin; Mirzagholi, Leila; Ma, Haozhi; Averill, Colin; Phillips, Oliver L.; Gamarra, Javier G. P.; Hordijk, Iris; Routh, Devin; Abegg, Meinrad; Adou Yao, Yves C.; Alberti, Giorgio; Almeyda Zambrano, Angelica M.; Alvarado, Braulio Vilchez; Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Alves, Luciana F.; Amaral, Iêda; Ammer, Christian; Antón-Fernández, Clara; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Arroyo, Luzmila; Avitabile, Valerio; Aymard, Gerardo A.; Baker, Timothy R.; Bałazy, Radomir; Banki, Olaf; Barroso, Jorcely G.; Bastian, Meredith L.; Bastin, Jean-Francois; Birigazzi, Luca; Birnbaum, Philippe; Bitariho, Robert; Boeckx, Pascal; Bongers, Frans; Bouriaud, Olivier; Brancalion, Pedro H. S.; Brandl, Susanne; Brearley, Francis Q.; Brienen, Roel; Broadbent, Eben N.; Bruelheide, Helge; Bussotti, Filippo; Cazzolla Gatti, Roberto; César, Ricardo G.; Cesljar, Goran; Chazdon, Robin L.; Chen, Han Y. H.; Chisholm, Chelsea; Cho, Hyunkook; Cienciala, Emil; Clark, Connie; Clark, David; Colletta, Gabriel D.; Coomes, David A.; Cornejo Valverde, Fernando; Corral-Rivas, José J.; Crim, Philip M.; Cumming, Jonathan R.; Dayanandan, Selvadurai; de Gasper, André L.; Decuyper, Mathieu; Derroire, Géraldine; Devries, Ben; Djordjevic, Ilija; Dolezal, Jiri; Dourdain, Aurélie; Engone Obiang, Nestor Laurier; Enquist, Brian J.; Eyre, Teresa J.; Fandohan, Adandé Belarmain; Fayle, Tom M.; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Ferreira, Leandro V.; Finér, Leena; Fischer, Markus; Fletcher, Christine; Frizzera, Lorenzo; Gianelle, Damiano; Glick, Henry B.; Harris, David J.; Hector, Andrew; Hemp, Andreas; Hengeveld, Geerten; Hérault, Bruno; Herbohn, John L.; Hillers, Annika; Honorio Coronado, Eurídice N.; Hui, Cang; Ibanez, Thomas; Imai, Nobuo; Jagodziński, Andrzej M.; Jaroszewicz, Bogdan; Johannsen, Vivian Kvist; Joly, Carlos A.; Jucker, Tommaso; Jung, Ilbin; Karminov, Viktor; Kartawinata, Kuswata; Kearsley, Elizabeth; Kenfack, David; Kennard, Deborah K.; Kepfer-Rojas, Sebastian; Keppel, Gunnar; Khan, Mohammed Latif; Killeen, Timothy J.; Kim, Hyun Seok; Kitayama, Kanehiro; Köhl, Michael; Korjus, Henn; Kraxner, Florian; Kucher, Dmitry; Laarmann, Diana; Lang, Mait; Lu, Huicui; Lukina, Natalia V.; Maitner, Brian S.; Malhi, Yadvinder; Marcon, Eric; Marimon, Beatriz Schwantes; Marimon-Junior, Ben Hur; Marshall, Andrew R.; Martin, Emanuel H.; Meave, Jorge A.; Melo-Cruz, Omar; Mendoza, Casimiro; Mendoza-Polo, Irina; Miscicki, Stanislaw; Merow, Cory; Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel; Moreno, Vanessa S.; Mukul, Sharif A.; Mundhenk, Philip; Nava-Miranda, María Guadalupe; Neill, David; Neldner, Victor J.; Nevenic, Radovan V.; Ngugi, Michael R.; Niklaus, Pascal A.; Oleksyn, Jacek; Ontikov, Petr; Ortiz-Malavasi, Edgar; Pan, Yude; Paquette, Alain; Parada-Gutierrez, Alexander; Parfenova, Elena I.; Park, Minjee; Parren, Marc; Parthasarathy, Narayanaswamy; Peri, Pablo L.; Pfautsch, Sebastian; Picard, Nicolas; Piedade, Maria Teresa F.; Piotto, Daniel; Pitman, Nigel C. A.; Poulsen, Axel Dalberg; Poulsen, John R.; Pretzsch, Hans; Ramirez Arevalo, Freddy; Restrepo-Correa, Zorayda; Rodeghiero, Mirco; Rolim, Samir G.; Roopsind, Anand; Rovero, Francesco; Rutishauser, Ervan; Saikia, Purabi; Salas-Eljatib, Christian; Saner, Philippe; Schall, Peter; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Schepaschenko, Dmitry; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael; Schmid, Bernhard; Schöngart, Jochen; Searle, Eric B.; Seben, Vladimír; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Sheil, Douglas; Shvidenko, Anatoly Z.; Silva-Espejo, Javier E.; Silveira, Marcos; Singh, James; Sist, Plinio; Slik, Ferry; Sonké, Bonaventure; Souza, Alexandre F.; Stereńczak, Krzysztof J.; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Svoboda, Miroslav; Swanepoel, Ben; Targhetta, Natalia; Tchebakova, Nadja; ter Steege, Hans; Thomas, Raquel; Tikhonova, Elena; Umunay, Peter M.; Usoltsev, Vladimir A.; Valencia, Renato; Valladares, Fernando; van der Plas, Fons; Van Do, Tran; van Nuland, Michael E.; Vasquez, Rodolfo M.; Verbeeck, Hans; Viana, Helder; Vibrans, Alexander C.; Vieira, Simone; von Gadow, Klaus; Wang, Hua-Feng; Watson, James V.; Werner, Gijsbert D. A.; Wiser, Susan K.; Wittmann, Florian; Woell, Hannsjoerg; Wortel, Verginia; Zagt, Roderik; Zawiła-Niedźwiecki, Tomasz; Zhang, Chunyu; Zhao, Xiuhai; Zhou, Mo; Zhu, Zhi-Xin; Zo-Bi, Irie C.; Gann, George D.; Crowther, Thomas W.. - In: NATURE. - ISSN 0028-0836. - 2023:(2023), pp. 1-16. [10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z]
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