Altitudinal dependence of projected changes in occurrenceof extreme events in the Great Alpine Region

Climate change has a strong impact on the environment in mountain areas,where ecosystems have adapted to climatic conditions that change with elevation.In this study, the response of temperature and precipitation climatic indices in thecomplex orography setting of the Great Alpine Region is discussed. The high-resolution gridded dataset that is presented has been produced with the WeatherResearch Forecasting (WRF) convection permitting regional model. Two 30-yearperiods have been considered (1979–2008, 2039–2068), obtained by downscalingglobal climate simulations with historical setting and RCP8.5 emission scenario.Both daily temperature and precipitation statistics have been found to be signifi-cantly different in the two periods, consisting in an overall projected warming anddrying of the region. The dependence of the projected changes on elevation ishighlighted, indicating a larger warming at medium and high elevations as well asa limited or nonexisting drying at high elevations. Physical mechanisms at thebase of those differences are presented and discussed.