Three essays on the Covid-19 crisis on household food security. Evidence from Ethiopia, Uganda, and Mozambique

The COVID-19 pandemic brought about disruptive consequences to many people’s livelihoods around the world. The package of restrictions to contrast the health crisis caused a contraction of income and employment, on the demand side, and a disruption of domestic and global value chains, on the supply side. In many low-income economies, the crisis exacerbated an already fragile situation, raising concerns in terms of food insecurity and malnutrition. However, given the peculiar characteristics of the COVID-19 shock, not all individuals are expected to be affected in the same way. Nevertheless, evidence of the ultimate impact on food security, and the mechanisms of transmission, is still scarce. This thesis aims to address this literature gap, providing evidence for three African countries. Specifically, the study analyses the change in terms of food production and food consumption, as well as their relationship, in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak, disentangling the heterogeneous impact over different types of households and different segments of the food value chain. To answer the proposed research questions, the study uses the most appropriate econometric techniques, which include a longitudinal model with household fixed effects, a structural equation model, and a cross-sectional model. What emerges is that the COVID-19 crisis severely impacted both household employment and income in 2020, the more so the longer the time length from the pandemic onset. The shock operated through two main channels of transmission, namely food value chain disruption and job loss, ultimately affecting household food security and child nutrition. The study also highlights the importance of considering the specific context under analysis and distinguishing between different types of households, specifically their market positioning when considering agricultural households.