Understanding traditional agro-ecosystem dynamics in response to systematic transition processes and rainfall variability patterns at watershed-scale in Southern Ethiopia

Multi-temporal analysis of land cover dynamics using remote sensing can enable the determination of the spatial extent and average rate of land cover change. With the application of an appropriate change analysis method, it is also possible to distinguish whether a land cover change has occurred by the effect of a random or a systematic process. In connection with this, characterizing rainfall variability and historical meteorological drought events can allow understanding of their effects on agro-ecosystems and vegetation cover dynamics. Therefore, this study has evaluated multi-temporal land cover change in response to the possible impacts of population pressure and rainfall variability on agro-ecosystem dynamics. This was conducted on a traditional agroforestry-dominated landscape in Southern Ethiopia. Using Landsat images acquired in 1985, 2000, and 2018, a post-classification land cover change analysis approach was employed to distinguish between a systematic and random process of inter-category transitions. Assessment of drought events and rainfall variability dynamics were performed using standardized precipitation index (SPI) and rainfall coefficient of variation (CV), respectively. Mann–Kendall test was also applied for the detection of a monotonic rainfall trend. A bias-corrected Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) over 1981–2017 was used to calculate the SPI, CV and Mann–Kendall trend test. The analysis showed that above 41% of the landscape has experienced land cover transitions between 1985 and 2018. This has primarily resulted by a systematic and rapid expansion of agriculture, urban areas, and eucalyptus plantations, at the expense of natural vegetation ecosystems. Consequently, over the last 33 years (1985–2018), natural forest, grassland, and wetland have declined by 74.8%, 83.3%, and 78.4%, respectively. Another major land cover change identified in this study was the replacement of open-field crops by agroforestry, mainly in the western part of the catchment. Such expansion of agroforestry has appeared to be spatially correlated with a lower amount of long-term average and more variable rainfall. Perhaps, this could indicate farmers’ response to rainfall variability by diversifying agricultural production options (i.e. agroforestry system), by replacing the more risk-prone mono-cropping culture. The observed persistence and further expansion of traditional agroforestry (a combination of perennial crops and scattered trees) have implications in terms of enhancing biodiversity conservation and environmental protection. Overall, the land cover transitions that occurred over the last three decades suggest future conservation priorities for improved landscape management, with more emphasis on the most exposed natural vegetation ecosystems.