Long-term evolution of highly regulated basins and water management policies to support their ecosystem services

Water management is facing a growing number of challenges in many river basins worldwide, as the equal distribution of the available water resources is increasingly influenced by several, uncertain climatic and anthropic pressures. Within the current and projected water scarcity and drought scenario, such issue represents even a greater challenge in those basins that have been massively regulated in the XX century, as water managers are asked to find balanced policies to stay ahead with multiple, interdependent and ever-increasing water-related requirements. In this context, water conflict has become a recurring problem, with the freshwater ecosystems becoming the sole providers of unbearable human water needs and experiencing a severe alteration of their natural renewability and ecological integrity. In fact, the concern of sustaining the freshwater ecosystems has evolved throughout the years, coming to the fore since the 1990s under the concept of "ecosystem services", defined as the multiple benefits that people obtain from ecosystems. With a high number of challenges still ahead for implementing such paradigm in real-world water management practices, few investigations inspect the long-term evolution of highly regulated basins, being vulnerable freshwater systems characterized by a profusion of ecosystem services in a context of complex management policies and changing anthropic and climatic pressures. We focus our attention on the highly interconnected Garda-Mincio system (Northern Italy), further broadening the results to the regulated basins of the European perialpine region. First, to examine the modification of the freshwater systems from their pristine to their regulated conditions, we carried out an extensive collection of daily hydro-meteorological data by consulting public online sources as well as digitizing historical data contained in hand-written documents. The resulting database, which represents a valuable source of long-term daily hydro-meteorological data for the Garda-Mincio system, additionally underscored the complexity of constructing and maintaining a consistent and up-to-date database within an inter-regional context. The collected data were then adopted to investigate the climatic and anthropogenic drivers that have progressively influenced water availability, the provision of the changing water demands and the trade-offs with the existing water ecosystem services over the last two centuries. Statistical analyses were performed to outline the evolution of the annual and seasonal trends of Lake Garda water levels and outflows over the period 1888-2020, discussing the role of the Salionze Dam operational rules (completed in 1951) as well as the influence of the main water needs of the downstream Mincio River basin (i.e. hydropower production, irrigation and fluvial ecosystem sustenance). The role of hydro-meteorological factors was assessed by implementing a water balance model for Lake Garda, the largest lake in Italy, over the period 1928-2020, performing uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on specific water balance components (i.e. over-lake evaporation and basin evapotranspiration). We then focus our analyses on the management of the hydraulic infrastructures that regulate the first and highly water-stressed stretch of the Mincio River downstream Lake Garda, i.e. the Salionze Dam and the Pozzolo-Marenghello infrastructures, where both high and low flow conditions reveal the inability of the current operational rules to support the new variety of water abstractions while maintaining appropriate environmental flow conditions and flood protection. These analyses were carried out through in-situ measurements and numerical simulations, updating the aging rating curves of the existing hydraulic infrastructures. Drawing on the Garda-Mincio system, we inspected the evolution of the freshwater regimes within the European perialpine lakes framework, discussing the outcomes to describe which common factors drove management policies in the area. Eventually, we discuss our outcomes recommending future sustainable and adaptive water management policies in the area.