On 3rd August 2020, the Italian National Institute of Statistics – Istat published the preliminary results of the seroprevalence survey on the percentage of individuals affected by COVID-19. This survey aims at defining (within the entire population of Italy) the portion of individuals who developed an antibody response against SARS-CoV-2. For the first time an estimate of the asymptomatic infected population is available so as to acknowledge its potential role in the infection spread in Italy, one of the most affected countries in Europe. The information obtained allows a particularly sensitive validation of epidemiological models which include the asymptomatic class. The present study is devoted to the construction of a model able to simulate, in a systematic way, the asymptomatic group whose relevance in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been recently discussed. The investigation involves the description of the first epidemic outbreak in Italy as well as the predictive analysis of the ongoing second wave. In particular, the possible correction to the data of the serological tests because of their sensitivity and specificity.

Modelling the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy making use of the Istat seroprevalence survey / Traini, Marco Claudio; Caponi, Carla; Ferrari, Riccardo; Vittorio De Socio, Giuseppe. - In: RIVISTA DI STATISTICA UFFICIALE. - ISSN 1972-4829. - STAMPA. - 1/2021:1(2021), pp. 19-57.

Modelling the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy making use of the Istat seroprevalence survey

Marco Claudio Traini;
2021-01-01

Abstract

On 3rd August 2020, the Italian National Institute of Statistics – Istat published the preliminary results of the seroprevalence survey on the percentage of individuals affected by COVID-19. This survey aims at defining (within the entire population of Italy) the portion of individuals who developed an antibody response against SARS-CoV-2. For the first time an estimate of the asymptomatic infected population is available so as to acknowledge its potential role in the infection spread in Italy, one of the most affected countries in Europe. The information obtained allows a particularly sensitive validation of epidemiological models which include the asymptomatic class. The present study is devoted to the construction of a model able to simulate, in a systematic way, the asymptomatic group whose relevance in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been recently discussed. The investigation involves the description of the first epidemic outbreak in Italy as well as the predictive analysis of the ongoing second wave. In particular, the possible correction to the data of the serological tests because of their sensitivity and specificity.
2021
1
Traini, Marco Claudio; Caponi, Carla; Ferrari, Riccardo; Vittorio De Socio, Giuseppe
Modelling the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy making use of the Istat seroprevalence survey / Traini, Marco Claudio; Caponi, Carla; Ferrari, Riccardo; Vittorio De Socio, Giuseppe. - In: RIVISTA DI STATISTICA UFFICIALE. - ISSN 1972-4829. - STAMPA. - 1/2021:1(2021), pp. 19-57.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11572/307277
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