Magnetospheric–ionospheric–lithospheric coupling model. 1: Observations during the 5 August 2018 Bayan earthquake

The short-term prediction of earthquakes is an essential issue connected with human life protection and related social and economic matters. Recent papers have provided some evidence of the link between the lithosphere, lower atmosphere, and ionosphere, even though with marginal statistical evidence. The basic coupling is hypothesized as being via the atmospheric gravity wave (AGW)/acoustic wave (AW) channel. In this paper we analyze a scenario of the low latitude earthquake (Mw = 6.9) which occurred in Indonesia on 5 August 2018, through a multi-instrumental approach, using ground and satellites high quality data. As a result, we derive a new analytical lithospheric–atmospheric–ionospheric–magnetospheric coupling model with the aim to provide quantitative indicators to interpret the observations around 6 h before and at the moment of the earthquake occurrence.