In a series of three behavioral experiments, we found a systematic distortion of probability judgments concerning elementary visual stimuli. Participants were briefly shown a set of figures that had two features (e.g., a geometric shape and a color) with two possible values each (e.g., triangle or circle and black or white). A figure was then drawn, and participants were informed about the value of one of its features (e.g., that the figure was a "circle") and had to predict the value of the other feature (e.g., whether the figure was "black" or "white"). We repeated this procedure for various sets of figures and, by varying the statistical association between features in the sets, we manipulated the probability of a feature given the evidence of another (e.g., the posterior probability of hypothesis "black" given the evidence "circle") as well as the support provided by a feature to another (e.g., the impact, or confirmation, of evidence "circle" on the hypothesis "black"). Results indicated that participants' judgments were deeply affected by impact, although they only should have depended on the probability distributions over the features, and that the dissociation between evidential impact and posterior probability increased the number of errors. The implications of these findings for lower and higher level cognitive models are discussed.

The effect of evidential impact on perceptual probabilistic judgments / Mangiarulo, Marta; Pighin, Stefania; Polonio, Luca; Tentori, Katya. - In: COGNITIVE SCIENCE. - ISSN 0364-0213. - 45:1(2021), p. e12919. [10.1111/cogs.12919]

The effect of evidential impact on perceptual probabilistic judgments

Mangiarulo, Marta;Pighin, Stefania;Polonio, Luca;Tentori, Katya
2021

Abstract

In a series of three behavioral experiments, we found a systematic distortion of probability judgments concerning elementary visual stimuli. Participants were briefly shown a set of figures that had two features (e.g., a geometric shape and a color) with two possible values each (e.g., triangle or circle and black or white). A figure was then drawn, and participants were informed about the value of one of its features (e.g., that the figure was a "circle") and had to predict the value of the other feature (e.g., whether the figure was "black" or "white"). We repeated this procedure for various sets of figures and, by varying the statistical association between features in the sets, we manipulated the probability of a feature given the evidence of another (e.g., the posterior probability of hypothesis "black" given the evidence "circle") as well as the support provided by a feature to another (e.g., the impact, or confirmation, of evidence "circle" on the hypothesis "black"). Results indicated that participants' judgments were deeply affected by impact, although they only should have depended on the probability distributions over the features, and that the dissociation between evidential impact and posterior probability increased the number of errors. The implications of these findings for lower and higher level cognitive models are discussed.
1
Mangiarulo, Marta; Pighin, Stefania; Polonio, Luca; Tentori, Katya
The effect of evidential impact on perceptual probabilistic judgments / Mangiarulo, Marta; Pighin, Stefania; Polonio, Luca; Tentori, Katya. - In: COGNITIVE SCIENCE. - ISSN 0364-0213. - 45:1(2021), p. e12919. [10.1111/cogs.12919]
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
Mangiarulo_Pighin_Polonio_Tentori_2021.pdf

Solo gestori archivio

Tipologia: Versione editoriale (Publisher’s layout)
Licenza: Tutti i diritti riservati (All rights reserved)
Dimensione 879.98 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
879.98 kB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11572/287692
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? 0
  • Scopus 1
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 0
social impact