Climate change is expected to impact agricultural land use. Steadily accumulating changes in temperature and water availability can alter the relative profitability of different farming activities and promote land-use changes. There is also potential for high-impact ‘climate tipping points’, where abrupt, nonlinear change in climate occurs, such as the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, using data from Great Britain, we develop a methodology to analyse the impacts of a climate tipping point on land use and economic outcomes for agriculture. We show that economic and land-use impacts of such a tipping point are likely to include widespread cessation of arable farming with losses of agricultural output that are an order of magnitude larger than the impacts of climate change without an AMOC collapse. The agricultural effects of AMOC collapse could be ameliorated by technological adaptations such as widespread irrigation, but the amount of water required and the costs appear to be prohibitive in this instance.

Shifts in national land use and food production in Great Britain after a climate tipping point / Ritchie, Paul D. L.; Smith, Greg S.; Davis, Katrina J.; Fezzi, Carlo; Halleck-Vega, Solmaria; Harper, Anna B.; Boulton, Chris A.; Binner, Amy R.; Day, Brett H.; Gallego-Sala, Angela V.; Mecking, Jennifer V.; Sitch, Stephen A.; Lenton, Timothy M.; Bateman, Ian J.. - In: NATURE FOOD. - ISSN 2662-1355. - 2020, 1:1(2020), pp. 76-83. [10.1038/s43016-019-0011-3]

Shifts in national land use and food production in Great Britain after a climate tipping point

Fezzi, Carlo;
2020-01-01

Abstract

Climate change is expected to impact agricultural land use. Steadily accumulating changes in temperature and water availability can alter the relative profitability of different farming activities and promote land-use changes. There is also potential for high-impact ‘climate tipping points’, where abrupt, nonlinear change in climate occurs, such as the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, using data from Great Britain, we develop a methodology to analyse the impacts of a climate tipping point on land use and economic outcomes for agriculture. We show that economic and land-use impacts of such a tipping point are likely to include widespread cessation of arable farming with losses of agricultural output that are an order of magnitude larger than the impacts of climate change without an AMOC collapse. The agricultural effects of AMOC collapse could be ameliorated by technological adaptations such as widespread irrigation, but the amount of water required and the costs appear to be prohibitive in this instance.
2020
1
Ritchie, Paul D. L.; Smith, Greg S.; Davis, Katrina J.; Fezzi, Carlo; Halleck-Vega, Solmaria; Harper, Anna B.; Boulton, Chris A.; Binner, Amy R.; Day, Brett H.; Gallego-Sala, Angela V.; Mecking, Jennifer V.; Sitch, Stephen A.; Lenton, Timothy M.; Bateman, Ian J.
Shifts in national land use and food production in Great Britain after a climate tipping point / Ritchie, Paul D. L.; Smith, Greg S.; Davis, Katrina J.; Fezzi, Carlo; Halleck-Vega, Solmaria; Harper, Anna B.; Boulton, Chris A.; Binner, Amy R.; Day, Brett H.; Gallego-Sala, Angela V.; Mecking, Jennifer V.; Sitch, Stephen A.; Lenton, Timothy M.; Bateman, Ian J.. - In: NATURE FOOD. - ISSN 2662-1355. - 2020, 1:1(2020), pp. 76-83. [10.1038/s43016-019-0011-3]
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
Ritchie et al. 2020 Nature Food.pdf

accesso aperto

Tipologia: Versione editoriale (Publisher’s layout)
Licenza: Creative commons
Dimensione 6.48 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
6.48 MB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11572/251376
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 24
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 18
social impact