Tropical and extratropical controls of Gulf of California surges and summertime precipitation over the Southwestern United States

In this study ERA-Interim data are used to study the influence of Gulf of California (GoC) moisture surges on the North American monsoon (NAM) precipitation over Arizona and western New Mexico (AZWNM), as well as the connection with larger-scale tropical and extratropical variability. To identify GoC surges, an improved index based on principal component analyses of the near-surface GoC winds is introduced. It is found that GoC surges explain up to 70% of the summertime rainfall over AZWNM. The number of surges that lead to enhanced rainfall in this region varies from 4 to 18 per year and is positively correlated with annual summertime precipitation. Regression analyses are performed to explore the relationship between GoC surges, AZWNM precipitation, and tropical and extratropical atmospheric variability at the synoptic (28 days), quasi-biweekly (10-20 days), and subseasonal (25-90 days) time scales. It is found that tropical and extratropical waves, responsible for intrusions of moist tropical air into midlatitudes, interact on all three time scales, with direct impacts on the development of GoC surges and positive precipitation anomalies over AZWNM. Strong precipitation events in this region are, however, found to be associated with time scales longer than synoptic, with the quasi-biweekly and subseasonal modes playing a dominant role in the occurrence of these more extreme events.