The sunrise of the Third Republic? The evolution of the Italian party system after the 2008 general elections and the prospects for constitutional reform

The results of the 2008 Italian general election were welcomed by many as the ‘sunrise of the Third Republic’, heralding a new political system which would emerge from a comprehensive constitutional reform agreed between the main parties of government and opposition. The party system now looks significantly different from that (or those) of the ‘Second Republic’. In particular, the disappearance of the radical left from Parliament and a clear reduction in the number of parties are the main factors underpinning optimistic predictions about a possible compromise on constitutional reform. Drawing on Sartori’s classic work as well as on more recent conceptualisations of party systems, this article analyses the evolution of the Italian party system over the medium and long term. It is cautious, if not pessimistic, about the prospects for reform. High levels of polarisation, stemming from different conceptions of democracy maintained by the two main parties, can be expected to hinder bipartisan reform. In particular, the figure of Berlusconi appears to represent both the cornerstone of the ‘reconstructed’ party system and the main obstacle to a widely agreed re-drafting of the Constitution.