Fostering the understanding of positive test results

Background: The majority of health-service users seem unable to properly compute the positive predictive value of medical tests. The research reported in the present study sought to investigate whether, and to what extent, probabilistic inferences about a positive test result can be improved by changing the traditional way in which probability judgments are elicited and medical information is presented. Methods: Online survey respondents were presented with a positive test result regarding a pregnant woman, and had to estimate the chances that her unborn baby had an anomaly (standard judgment), to apportion the numbers of chances for and against this hypothesis (distributive judgment), and to indicate whether the hypothesis that the baby had an anomaly was more or less likely than its alternative (relative judgment). Test sensitivity and information framing were also manipulated. Results: Irrespective of education and to some extent of numeracy, the majority of respondents produced cor...