Recent empirical work has documented the high concentration of trade flows, and the large role played by few “big hits” in each country’s export. We propose a simple stochastic benchmark against which we assess each economy’s actual number of “big hits”. We show that most European countries underperform the benchmark, while China, the US and Germany do better. A low number of “big hits” (relative to our prediction) is associated with higher export volatility. Looking at possible determinants of “big hits”, we find they depend on the actual performance of each country, so that industrial policy needs to be country-specific.

Big hits, export concentration and volatility / Sufrauj, Shamnaaz Begum; Schiavo, Stefano; Riccaboni, Massimo. - In: ECONOMIA POLITICA. - ISSN 1120-2890. - STAMPA. - 32:2(2015), pp. 135-166. [10.1007/s40888-015-0014-y]

Big hits, export concentration and volatility

Sufrauj, Shamnaaz Begum;Schiavo, Stefano;Riccaboni, Massimo
2015-01-01

Abstract

Recent empirical work has documented the high concentration of trade flows, and the large role played by few “big hits” in each country’s export. We propose a simple stochastic benchmark against which we assess each economy’s actual number of “big hits”. We show that most European countries underperform the benchmark, while China, the US and Germany do better. A low number of “big hits” (relative to our prediction) is associated with higher export volatility. Looking at possible determinants of “big hits”, we find they depend on the actual performance of each country, so that industrial policy needs to be country-specific.
2015
2
Sufrauj, Shamnaaz Begum; Schiavo, Stefano; Riccaboni, Massimo
Big hits, export concentration and volatility / Sufrauj, Shamnaaz Begum; Schiavo, Stefano; Riccaboni, Massimo. - In: ECONOMIA POLITICA. - ISSN 1120-2890. - STAMPA. - 32:2(2015), pp. 135-166. [10.1007/s40888-015-0014-y]
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11572/142005
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