Subjective probabilities and farmers' decision-making in developing countries

This chapter reviews studies exploring the role of subjective probabilities in explaining farmers’ decision-making under risk and uncertainty in developing countries. These probabilities relate to a wide set of random variables, including climatic events, yield, price and income fuctuations. The chapter also provides a mapping of the most widely used methods to elicit subjective probabilities and a new framework to investigate the internal and external validity of the elicited probabilities.