To be ethical let’s think Bayesian - A case study from management

Framing of the research. Management deals with actions/decisions such as, for example, «supporting higher costs for environmental prevention and land conservation, even when it is not mandatory by law». What are the «conditions» that could favor these types of choices, which, as «common sense» suggests, are to be considered «ethical behaviors»? The existence of a range of tools (e.g. board of directors), levers (e.g. social example of direct manager) and rules (e.g. protocols, certifications), is challenging for the management that aims to select «ethical behaviors», perhaps in the form of «best practices, which are useful for running its business, just as the «common sense» of the manager or entrepreneur sometimes suggests. Purpose of the paper. The scenario depicted above gives an idea of the importance of having methodology, as rigorous as possible, capable of allowing an overall assessment of various tools, levers, and rules. The introduction of this kind of methodology, and some preliminary experiments, is the purpose of this work. Methodology. The methodology is based on «Bayesian belief networks», an implementation of the Bayesian paradigm. Starting from data collected through surveys, representing management’s perception, it is possible to update beliefs and generate suggestions of «ethical behaviors», proposed in the form of simple heuristics. Results. The emerging conceptual framework shows how, starting from a series of beliefs, belonging to the «common sense» of management, can emerge «conceptual maps» of belief and behaviors, under the form of «heuristics», data-driven, that can support management in its daily decision making. Research limitations. The proposed methodology needs to be verified with managers decision making while acting in their daily workplace. Managerial implications. The proposed models, readable in the form of simple «heuristics», may play a chief role for education and training purposes and work as reference best practice for human resource management units during the hiring processes. Originality of the paper. In a nutshell, in the case dealt with in this paper, we could say that the paradigm introduced would allow us to have a method that, starting from the ethical management of common sense, would pass to the ethical management based on evidence, of which the common sense is the custodian.