Internal Insulation of Historic Buildings: A Stochastic Approach to Life Cycle Costing Within RIBuild EU Project

The application of internal insulation is a widespread and effective solution for energy renovation of historic buildings. However, it entails quite high installation costs and a certain risk of failure due to moisture-related problems. A probabilistic risk assessment of both hygrothermal performance and life cycle costs can be used to address internal insulation issue, in order to support risk management and decision-making. This paper presents the application of a probabilistic approach to Life Cycle Costing developed within the EU project RIBuild (Robust Internal Thermal Insulation of Historic Buildings), to five internal insulations solutions widely used in Italy. The method provides estimates of the range and likelihood of global costs and payback periods, also considering alternative energy and future economic scenarios. The impact of insulation systems service life on global costs is also addressed, in order to highlight the possible connection of the method to a stochastic estimation of insulation systems durability based on hygrothermal and damage assessments.