Slow fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: What Implications For Europe's Development Aid And Migration Policies?

Point of departure for this essay is the literature stressing the high fertility rate that—in spite of the remarkable decline in infant mortality—still characterizes Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), whose anomalously slow demographic transition does not replicate the experience of other regions. We then assess the possibility that SSA can fully enjoy the benefits of the so-called demographic dividend: we expressed a note of skepticism about this possibility. We also discuss how the more rapid growth of income per capita that the acceleration of the demographic transition may bring about in SSA is not going in the short-to medium run to reduce its migration pressure on other regions of the world (and on Europe in particular). Indeed, it is likely that a higher income per capita will raise both Africans’ aspirations and capabilities to migrate overseas. It follows from the latter conclusion that international development aid—even if effective—cannot reduce SSA migration pressure on Europe in the predictable future (in contrast with what most commentators and politicians keep claiming). This may imply a sort of decoupling between advanced economies’ strategies concerning development aid to SSA and their migration policies. Finally, we propose a comprehensive research agenda aimed at investigating the medium to long-term effects of massive SSA migration to Southern Europe.