On estimating the seismic displacement capacity of timber portal-frames

An analytical model is proposed to estimate the seismic displacement capacity, at serviceability and ultimate limit states, of timber portal frame structures with dowelled joints. The predictions from the simplified formula are compared with the results of numerical analyses carried out on a sample of representative cases. These cases result from a simulated design procedure, consistent with Eurocode 8, and are generated via Monte Carlo sampling, with varying sizes, materials and load conditions and also uncertainties in these parameters. Based on the outcome of the analysis we propose a set of practical formulas which allow prediction of the displacement with a given percentile of overestimates. In addition, it is shown that these equations for displacement capacity can be used to generate fragility curves for performance-based earthquake engineering applications. Prescription of an overstrength factor in code provisions is recommended to avoid brittle failure.