Spouses’ earnings association and inequality: A non-linear perspective

We analyze the association between spouses’ earnings taking account of non-linearities along both spouses’ distribution of earnings. We also document the non-linearity of the relationships between earnings and labor force participation, earnings and couple formation, and earnings and number of children. Using simulations, we then analyze how changes in spouses’ rank-dependence structure, labor force participation and couple formation contribute to the upsurge in inequality in the U.S between 1967 and 2018. We find that an increased tendency towards positive sorting contributed substantially to the rise in inequality only among dual-earner couples, while it contributed little to overall inequality across households. Temporal and distributional heterogeneity are important, as earnings association had a more substantial role in the bottom of the earnings distribution and in recent years. The decline in couple formation contributed substantially to the rise in inequality, while the increase in female labor force participation and the fertility decline had equalizing effects.