A bottom-up spatially explicit methodology to estimate the space heating demand of the building stock at regional scale

The paper presents a spatially explicit and “bottom-up”methodology for the building stock analysis of the residential sector. It integrates different input data in a Geographical Information System (GIS), with- out using the “archetypes approach”and simulation tools. In particular, the energy balance at the build- ing level (BL) for the whole Valle d’Aosta region (Italy) is addressed, using the Italian Ministerial De- cree 26/06/2009 and the UNI/TS 11300-1:2014 standard. Main outputs are the estimation of the geo- referenced heating demand of the residential buildings for the case study area (almost 42,0 0 0 buildings), and the development of a methodology that can be applied at different scales. The application of the methodology to the case study slightly overestimates the total thermal demand of the residential build- ing stock, especially referring to the more energy demanding buildings. However, being the method in- fluenced by data availability, the quality is expected to improve with newly available data. The proposed GIS-based methodology is designed to be part of a broader Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) for sustainable energy plans that integrate renewable sources in the building stock energy renovation.